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生活大爆炸第六季

美国对华再加关税,高达100%,一个细节显露美国焦虑,欧洲先怒了?_我的网站

那年花开月正圆

A |     

就在昨天(5月14日),中美在日内瓦进行人工智能对话的时候,美国总统拜登宣布对价值180亿美元的中国进口商品征收“严厉的”新关税税率,涉及的商品主要来自战略行业,如电动汽车、锂电池、太阳能电池等,也就是我们之前所说的“新三样”。
所谓“严厉”,就是关税的幅度很高,比如电动车的关税达到了100%;太阳能电池和半导体芯片的关税翻倍,从20%增加到50%;电动车锂电池的关税从原来的7.5%涨到了25%……总之,有的翻了一倍,有的翻了三倍等等。    
Former President Donald Trump surrendered at Fulton County Jail in Atlanta on Thursday evening and booked on more than a dozen charges stemming from what prosecutors say were efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election in the state.
He arrived for his booking at 7:30pm, escorted by a Secret Service entourage at least a dozen black cars deep and a motorcade of law enforcement officials after traveling on his private jet from his residence in Bedminster, New Jersey.
Afterward, he made brief – and defiant – remarks.
“If you challenge an election, you should be able to challenge the election. I thought the election was a rigged election, a stolen election. And I should have every right to do that,” he said before boarding his plane. “What has taken place here is a travesty of justice. We did nothing wrong. I did nothing wrong.”
Throngs of Trump’s supporters and critics alike gathered early in the morning behind barricades in the parking lot across from the infamous jail ahead of the former president’s arrival, holding signs, shouting from megaphones and waving flags.
Converging with the heavy media presence and tight security, it was all but certainly the media circus Trump had hoped it would be in the wake of the first GOP presidential primary debate on Wednesday evening, which the former president chose to sit out, citing his record-setting lead in polling.
Trump and 18 of his closest allies are being charged in a sweeping racketeering scheme, which involved spreading conspiracy theories, pressuring elected officials and propping up fake electors to overturn the 2020 presidential election results in Georgia in a desperate effort to remain in power despite having lost the presidency in a free and fair vote.
The charges follow a two-year investigation by Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis.
The indictment marks the fourth set of criminal charges against Trump, who now faces a cumulative 91 felony counts in New York state court for hush money payments to porn star Stormy Daniels, in federal court in Florida for mishandling classified documents, in federal court in the District of Columbia for his efforts to prevent the peaceful transfer of power and incite a violent insurrection at the Capitol and now in Georgia.
Sheriff Pat Labat maintained that Trump would be treated like anyone else accused of a crime by a grand jury – and by all accounts he was. The booking process has become somewhat commonplace for Trump, even though it remains unprecedented among former presidents.
But unlike his other surrenders, this one included a photograph – a mugshot that became a part of American history the second the shutter clicked as the first former U.S. president was captured through the lens. The photo is set to be released by the county sheriff’s office on Friday.
Trump, who is the front-runner for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, has denied wrongdoing in all the cases against him and continues to repeat unfounded claims that the 2020 presidential election was “rigged and stolen.” In reality, Trump lost the general election to Biden, and, in Georgia specifically, he lost by some 11,779 votes.
Trump, in his remarks, repeated claims that his indictments are an attempt by Democrats and the so-called “deep state” to undermine his candidacy for president.
“What they're doing is election interference. They're trying to interfere with an election,” he said. “There’s never been anything like it in our country before. This is their way of campaigning.”
The conditions for his release, which were set last week, include a $200,000 bond and strict conditions on his social media use. Among other things, he must not violate any laws in Georgia or elsewhere, he must appear in court as directed, he must not communicate about the facts of the case with fellow co-defendants – except through his legal team – and he must not intimidate co-defendants or witnesses.
Hours before his surrender, Trump replaced one of his leading attorneys, Drew Findling, with Steve Sadow, a widely respected criminal defense lawyer in Atlanta who recently defended a rapper in a racketeering case. Shadow has long criticized Georgia prosecutors for overusing the state’s RICO law.
The sudden change in defense came as a surprise – though not entirely out of character for Trump, who has been burning through attorneys in recent months as his legal challenges mount.
At least 12 of Trump’s 18 co-defendants have surrendered already, including Mark Meadows, the former White House chief of staff, former U.S. acting Assistant Attorney General Jeffrey Clark and Trump’s former personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani.
Meadows, the former White House chief of staff, had sought to delay his surrender date until a decision was made on his request to move his charges to federal court and dismiss the indictment altogether. But a federal judge on Wednesday denied him an extension.
The handful of other co-defendants who have yet to surrender have until noon on Friday before Willis issues warrants for their arrests.
Willis initially proposed that the trial begin on March 4 – adding to an already busy legal calendar for Trump heading into the 2024 election. But the former president is seeking to delay the case for as long as possible, including by lengthy pre-trial motions and a petition to move the charges to a federal court. Legal experts say Willis' timeline is likely untenable – though she did file a motion on Thursday to move up the timeline for the trial to Oct. 23 after one of the co-defendants filed a request for a speedy trial.
但值得注意的是,虽然幅度很高,但数额很少,只有180亿美元。
众所周知,特朗普现在有梅开二度、班师回朝的趋势,而之前他走的时候是留下了3000亿美元。
我记得2018年7月6日,特朗普首次对中国展开贸易战的时候是340亿美元;后来到了2018年8月23日,又追加了160亿美元,两个加起来是500亿美元;然后同年9月1日又增加,宣布到2019年1月1日开始正式实施,这次价值高达2000亿美元。加上前两次的,就有2500亿美元了,再加上之后零零散散的500亿美元,总价值就达到了3000亿美元。
 所以相比之下,这一次的180亿美元虽然幅度很高,但数额很少。
为什么数额很少呢?其中一个很重要的原因就是,中国“新三样”产品进入美国的数量很少。
有数据显示,中国生产的大部分电动车都是供国内使用,其中只有16%用于出口。而在这16%中,大部分都出口到了周边国家和地区,其次是欧洲,出口到美国的可以说是很小的一部分。所以要论谁更守不住,欧洲可能更为迫切。

B |

再看向美国电动车的进口占比数据。美国进口电动车中,来自德国的占22%,来自韩国的占21%,来自日本的占18%,而来自中国的只有2%,甚至还不足2%,这也难怪所有关税加起来仅价值180亿美元。
第一,我们不应该过分担忧,因为对中国的伤害相当有限,这也是就事论事的结论。

C |

第二,美国方面昨天(5月14日)也承认,此举与今年大选无关,而是一个“pre-emptive strike”。
“pre-emptive strike”这个词是2003年小布什攻打伊拉克时美国人发明的,翻译成中文就是“先发制人”。它的意思是,本来你来我往,你打了我,我再打你;但先发制人是,虽然你还没有打我,但我认为你有可能要打我,所以我要先把你干掉。
所以,白宫方面就解释,对中国加征关税是为了防止中国产品,尤其是战略行业的产品大量进入美国,影响美国自己的战略行业发展。
坦率来讲,我认为美国是多虑了,其荒唐程度就像我们要求美国首都不要从华盛顿撤离一样,因为这个事情根本就不存在,如果硬要加上一个不存在的假设,逻辑上是非常荒唐的。
而这个荒唐背后,其实折射出美国的焦虑。无论是此前的人工智能对话,还是这次对中国“新三样”加征的高关税,这背后其实都是自4月美国财长耶伦访华后,美国对中国的打压。
第三,这次的先发制人,其实也是对其他国家的暗示,尤其是欧洲、加拿大、日本、韩国等与中国有经贸往来和高科技往来的国家。美国希望通过此举起到一个羊群效应,让其他国家跟随自己,共同围堵中国。
但恰恰是这个羊群效应,在欧洲内部引起了强烈的反弹。
前面我提到,美国进口电动车中有2%来自中国,但其实这里面还包含了一部分欧洲车。
虽然欧洲品牌的车很少在中国生产,但里面仍有一小部分产自中国,所以把这些欧洲品牌的车也纳入为中国车,对欧洲很不公平。
截至目前,因为规模太小,我并不认为这是所谓的贸易战,但美国先发制人的战略,未来有可能会继续往上打,到时就有好戏可看,就像6年之前,特朗普对中国打贸易战,但打着打着,因为损害了欧洲企业在中国的利益,欧美之间可能先打起来。

D |

中国对该政策其实无所谓,一是如果可以找到几个替代的小市场,比如巴西、墨西哥,就能不出口到美国;二是即便暂时找不到替代市场,中国可以加价,让美国的下游、终端消费者来承受伤害。

E |

所以政策出台之后,美国国会已经在探讨自己会受到多少损害,这就叫“杀敌八百,自损一千”,不仅损自己,还损了他的欧洲伙伴。
第四,非常明显地折射出美国内部的无解,对中国崛起一筹莫展。

F |

这个所谓的高关税,其实就是西方国家在18、19世纪的老套路,且行之无效。但人类,尤其是西方人,愚蠢就愚蠢在这个地方,即便历史已经证实其行之无效,一筹莫展的时候,还是重新拿出来为自己壮胆,同时掩饰自己的无能。

G |

第五,昨天(5月14日)特朗普出来说话了,表示要是自己,早就实行高关税,不会浪费3年半时间。拜登也怼了回去,表示他们一直有在工作,反而是特朗普执政时“养肥”了中国。但其实,中国人是靠自己的努力“养成”的。
从特朗普和拜登之间的互怼,我们除了看出他们一筹莫展,还能看出拜登上台之后,不仅没有取消特朗普留下的3000亿美元关税,现在还变本加厉。

H | 上个月,拜登在宾夕法尼亚州宣布要对中国加征3倍关税,即25%的关税,如今又针对中国的“新三样”。

 其实无论是在哪个行业,都折射了拜登和特朗普之间,虽然他们风格、理念不同,但最后的政治解决方案上如出一辙。

I | 这恰恰是现在西方国家,尤其是美国作为西方世界最发达的国家,面临的一种结构性的困惑、无奈。

未来如何发展?我觉得中国要在战略上重视,战术上藐视。因为美国打压中国的“新三样”,只是给自己壮个胆,不会对中国构成结构性影响,战术上可以蔑视,但又因为后续有来,战略上需要重视。
而且,在打压中国“新三样”的问题上,美欧之间是有些许的共识,正如西方的一句“魔鬼都在细节里面”,所以我们不但重视战略,还要重视细节,去关注美欧之间的同和异。
而这个相当程度涉及到中国的商业部门和企业。

J | 无论是中国的民企、国企,甚至在中国的外企,对外出口时都会遇到障碍。

K |

现在很多问题已经不是在战略上解决问题,而是在战术上要像工兵一样起吊地雷,像炮兵一样精准地予以射击。
最近发生了很多事情,明天(5月16日)普京访问中国,中俄关系何去何从,下星期一(5月20日)赖清德上台,两岸关系是战是和,以及美国打压中国“新三样”后,美欧之间到底怎么样,中国企业除“新三样”以外在世界各地的市场将有哪些异动,这些问题都值得我们关注。

L |

不过有关这些问题,我一个人讲不完,所以我们将在本周六晚上(5月18日)请来一波大咖嘉宾出现在我们的直播间,朋友们如果想看,私信我“直播”二字,就可以咨询小助理。

M |

在这次直播中,我们将会谈及美国打压中国“新三样”的后续,中国企业如何对此做好防范,以及赖清德上台、俄罗斯等问题,希望各位关注。

N |

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Published on:14:41:48


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